Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked April 27, 2021

Created

Sun Sep 06 21:41:12 +0000 2020

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter for Android

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn Yeah that's basically what the prior is trying to say, in our view (i.e. how would a generic elected incumbent be doing under these conditions). There's a sense in which it feels weird to treat Trump as a generic *anything*, but I'm not sure how to operationalize that in a model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn I feel pretty good about our prior (which has drifted up to around Trump +2 nationally after further good economic data) FWIW. His approval on the economy is good. Q3 GDP numbers could be nearly as good as Q2 was bad. Incumbents around the world have mostly gotten more popular. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn It's very close to 50/50 though (Trump's small edge comes from incumbency at this point.) Err I should say in the popular vote. I can see an argument that the prior should be calibrated off the tipping-point state instead. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated