Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sun Sep 06 21:21:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn I feel pretty good about our prior (which has drifted up to around Trump +2 nationally after further good economic data) FWIW. His approval on the economy is good. Q3 GDP numbers could be nearly as good as Q2 was bad. Incumbents around the world have mostly gotten more popular. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For all the focus on Wisconsin, Biden has been polling conspicuously well there as compared to the other swing states. Currently +7.1 on quite a bit of recent polling, which is pretty similar to his national lead (+7.5). https://t.co/C8GYebMykJ https://t.co/zf3Tp7eefc — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@Nate_Cohn Yeah that's basically what the prior is trying to say, in our view (i.e. how would a generic elected incumbent be doing under these conditions). There's a sense in which it feels weird to treat Trump as a generic *anything*, but I'm not sure how to operationalize that in a model. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 6, 2020 Hibernated