Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked March 25, 2021

Created

Fri Sep 04 15:15:26 +0000 2020

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In this example, the prior shows Trump winning Arizona because if the race were tied nationally, Arizona is (slightly) red-leaning and therefore Trump would be favored there. Note that the prior gets relatively little weight, though (18% and it will fall to 0% by Election Day). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The prior (Step 4) based on the economy & incumbency helps Trump in *all* states, conversely, because our model's prior (with recent rapid improvement in economic data) is that the race should be ~tied nationally, rather than Trump being behind 7/8 points, as he is in the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In some ways the obsession with "shy Trump voters" shows how cloistered elites are because there are many places in America where you would face no social stigma whatsoever for showing outward support for Trump (often the opposite, in fact). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated