Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 25, 2021

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Fri Sep 04 15:12:20 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The prior (Step 4) based on the economy & incumbency helps Trump in *all* states, conversely, because our model's prior (with recent rapid improvement in economic data) is that the race should be ~tied nationally, rather than Trump being behind 7/8 points, as he is in the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the new polls-to-vote feature on our interactive, you can see where our model thinks the polling averages are too bearish or bullish on Biden based on demographics and past voting. For instance, Biden's polling a bit better than the model expects in AZ. https://t.co/TdCOi1WkWL https://t.co/UAnvxUc5g3 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In this example, the prior shows Trump winning Arizona because if the race were tied nationally, Arizona is (slightly) red-leaning and therefore Trump would be favored there. Note that the prior gets relatively little weight, though (18% and it will fall to 0% by Election Day). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated