Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 25, 2021

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Fri Sep 04 15:07:44 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In the new polls-to-vote feature on our interactive, you can see where our model thinks the polling averages are too bearish or bullish on Biden based on demographics and past voting. For instance, Biden's polling a bit better than the model expects in AZ. https://t.co/TdCOi1WkWL https://t.co/UAnvxUc5g3 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @micahcohen: We added some awesome detail to the state pages of our presidential forecast -- a step-by-step look at how the forecast goe… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Retweet Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The prior (Step 4) based on the economy & incumbency helps Trump in *all* states, conversely, because our model's prior (with recent rapid improvement in economic data) is that the race should be ~tied nationally, rather than Trump being behind 7/8 points, as he is in the polls. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated