Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 01 11:46:09 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Again, one must be aware of the possibility of correlated polling error *in either direction*. I can imagine reasons that polls would underestimate Trump again. Can also imagine some reasons they'd underestimate Biden especially if pollsters are "fighting the last war" from 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also worth noting that polls in the midterms showed no bias in either direction. Nor did Trump over-perform his polls in the 2016 primaries. Nor do nationalist parties have any history of outperforming their polls in a large sample of European elections. https://t.co/KejtGLldTD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But usually, if someone is obsessed with shy Trump voters, it's a sign that they have a sophomoric understanding of the field. It's the sort of thing that makes you sound smart but doesn't really have much evidence behind it once you've done the research. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated