Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 01 11:42:19 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also worth noting that polls in the midterms showed no bias in either direction. Nor did Trump over-perform his polls in the 2016 primaries. Nor do nationalist parties have any history of outperforming their polls in a large sample of European elections. https://t.co/KejtGLldTD — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There's not really much/any evidence of shy Trump voters at all. He only beat his polls by ~2 points in 2016, which can pretty easily be explained by not properly weighting by education + late-deciding voters breaking toward him. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Again, one must be aware of the possibility of correlated polling error *in either direction*. I can imagine reasons that polls would underestimate Trump again. Can also imagine some reasons they'd underestimate Biden especially if pollsters are "fighting the last war" from 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated