Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 01 11:51:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But usually, if someone is obsessed with shy Trump voters, it's a sign that they have a sophomoric understanding of the field. It's the sort of thing that makes you sound smart but doesn't really have much evidence behind it once you've done the research. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Again, one must be aware of the possibility of correlated polling error *in either direction*. I can imagine reasons that polls would underestimate Trump again. Can also imagine some reasons they'd underestimate Biden especially if pollsters are "fighting the last war" from 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm Yeah, it's also a somewhat Republican-leaning group of pollsters. YouGov and Morning Consult, which have don't have strong house effects, have the race at 6 and 8 points respectively, so our average showing it at 7 might be about right. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated