Tweet by @NateSilver538

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's also the rarity of elections. Say an expert can achieve a 20% ROI on bets on presidential elections and 10% ROI on midterms. Would be impossible to achieve in nearly any other context involving markets. But can they make a career off one stochastic bet every 2-4 years? No. — PolitiTweet.org

The markets also aren't deep and liquid enough to sufficiently reward people for being smarter than the average mar… https://t.co/k4zR1Ynxht

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most of what makes political prediction markets dumb is that people assume they have expertise about election forecasting because they a) follow politics and b) understand "data" and "markets". Without more specific domain knowledge, though, that combo is a recipe for stupidity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By the same token, making one bet at a -10% or -20% ROI every 2-4 years ain't going to cost you very much. You'll sometimes wind up winning anyway, you'll get a fun "sweat", and you'll gain social capital among people who think betting on elections makes you seem sophisticated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated