Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 31 15:19:06 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

By the same token, making one bet at a -10% or -20% ROI every 2-4 years ain't going to cost you very much. You'll sometimes wind up winning anyway, you'll get a fun "sweat", and you'll gain social capital among people who think betting on elections makes you seem sophisticated. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's also the rarity of elections. Say an expert can achieve a 20% ROI on bets on presidential elections and 10% ROI on midterms. Would be impossible to achieve in nearly any other context involving markets. But can they make a career off one stochastic bet every 2-4 years? No. — PolitiTweet.org

The markets also aren't deep and liquid enough to sufficiently reward people for being smarter than the average mar… https://t.co/k4zR1Ynxht

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @nataliemj10: Re #2: THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF THIS. Stay in your lane, JPM. https://t.co/kfktYNssWS — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Retweet Deleted after 1 year, 8 months Hibernated