Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 31 15:04:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most of what makes political prediction markets dumb is that people assume they have expertise about election forecasting because they a) follow politics and b) understand "data" and "markets". Without more specific domain knowledge, though, that combo is a recipe for stupidity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Both of these propositions are almost entirely lacking in evidence, to the point where they're more superstitious than empirical, but are an interesting window into the mindset of techbros and financebros who are buying up Trump shares on prediction markets. — PolitiTweet.org

JPMORGAN: “Trump’s re-election chances are rising, .. due to two effects: 1) the impact of the degree of violence i… https://t.co/MHI3rLYoJw

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's also the rarity of elections. Say an expert can achieve a 20% ROI on bets on presidential elections and 10% ROI on midterms. Would be impossible to achieve in nearly any other context involving markets. But can they make a career off one stochastic bet every 2-4 years? No. — PolitiTweet.org

The markets also aren't deep and liquid enough to sufficiently reward people for being smarter than the average mar… https://t.co/k4zR1Ynxht

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated