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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 31 14:54:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Both of these propositions are almost entirely lacking in evidence, to the point where they're more superstitious than empirical, but are an interesting window into the mindset of techbros and financebros who are buying up Trump shares on prediction markets. — PolitiTweet.org

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla

JPMORGAN: “Trump’s re-election chances are rising, .. due to two effects: 1) the impact of the degree of violence i… https://t.co/MHI3rLYoJw

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@chrislhayes I think it's also a problem though that the media *assumes* it benefits him, and has largely adopted the White House's framing on that point, without citing much if any evidence. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Most of what makes political prediction markets dumb is that people assume they have expertise about election forecasting because they a) follow politics and b) understand "data" and "markets". Without more specific domain knowledge, though, that combo is a recipe for stupidity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated