Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 31 00:17:57 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@haralabob Well then hopefully other people can read 538 and make some money by betting on our forecasts. I can't do so myself. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@haralabob Not really. My employer doesn't let me bet on them, I wouldn't think it would be ethical to do so anyway since our numbers can move markets, there's not a ton of liquidity, and there aren't that many elections so it's high-volatility. But, their prices are usually pretty dumb. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is smart, but I'd add one more wrinkle: I think one of the flaws in the current conventional wisdom is in the assumption that the focus on crime/protests/unrest will either benefit Trump or have no effect, when it's plausible it benefits Biden instead. — PolitiTweet.org

I think people sense that the issue environment has changed in a way that *could* benefit Trump: crime/unrest is mo… https://t.co/x4znOKoVnB

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated