Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 27 23:13:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Of course it's possible! But as a matter of practice, it's way, way easier to build overconfident models than under-confident ones, especially given the nature of the data in a presidential election forecast (low n, correlated errors). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So when I see data-oriented folks get overly obsessed with what this or that indicator would have said in 2016 or otherwise fighting the last year, I think they're starting to commit some of the same sins as conventional punditry with its strong recency bias. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You'd think this sort of analysis (which is based on approximately zero evidence) would have become less common after the very NOT online Joe Biden crushed all comers in the Democratic primary. https://t.co/eNCzS0iX1Q https://t.co/CZnx4MKgqh — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated