Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 27 23:36:59 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You'd think this sort of analysis (which is based on approximately zero evidence) would have become less common after the very NOT online Joe Biden crushed all comers in the Democratic primary. https://t.co/eNCzS0iX1Q https://t.co/CZnx4MKgqh — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Of course it's possible! But as a matter of practice, it's way, way easier to build overconfident models than under-confident ones, especially given the nature of the data in a presidential election forecast (low n, correlated errors). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I assume he's correct that Facebook has become a go-to news source for a lot of conservatives. That's exactly why you CAN'T use it as a substitute for polls! It's not representative! It's *exactly* like saying "I watch lots of Fox News, so I know Trump's going to win." — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated