Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 27 22:56:02 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So when I see data-oriented folks get overly obsessed with what this or that indicator would have said in 2016 or otherwise fighting the last year, I think they're starting to commit some of the same sins as conventional punditry with its strong recency bias. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

IMO one of the biggest advantages of models is looking at the broader history of elections and not just the most recent or salient examples. There were decent precedents for how Biden won the D nomination (say, Clinton '92) for instance, but they weren't especially recent. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@conorsen Of course it's possible! But as a matter of practice, it's way, way easier to build overconfident models than under-confident ones, especially given the nature of the data in a presidential election forecast (low n, correlated errors). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated