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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know if there's a *consensus*, but my impression of the research on this topic is that the single *most* important factor is just that SARS-CoV-2 was introduced very early in NYC (probably early February), perhaps with multiple introductions. https://t.co/FJSAJeXRDU — PolitiTweet.org

The best thing about the pandemic is there’s still no consensus as to why exactly things got so bad in Greater NYC… https://t.co/yWgXNtJ4tj

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's not to say there are no risks here for Democrats. Maybe there is some degree of quiet backlash building to the protests (although note that support for BLM is still equal/higher than pre-protests). But if Trump tries to loudly exploit that, it could backfire. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jbarro There's a discussion in here. Convention bounces have declined in general, likely because of higher partisanship, but it could also reflect other factors (e.g. changes in polling practices). The model assumed there would be rather small bounces this year. https://t.co/nVtlpQscbB https://t.co/qCzgjUH4tp — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated