Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 27 02:18:32 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris He's also citing the win probability from the "polls-only" version of our forecast from 2016, rather than "polls-plus", which is the version that we're using in 2020. And he's not mentioning the fact that Biden is in the midst of his post-convention period, while Clinton wasn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris We've made changes to our polling average algorithm since 2016. Since he looked up what our win probability was in 2016, it would have been more honest of him to also look up and cite what the 2016 version of our polling average was that the win probability was derived from. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris There are just several layers of dishonestly, with the implication that our model incorporates far more uncertainty in 2020 than in 2016, which is not true. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated