Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 27 02:20:25 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris There are just several layers of dishonestly, with the implication that our model incorporates far more uncertainty in 2020 than in 2016, which is not true. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris He's also citing the win probability from the "polls-only" version of our forecast from 2016, rather than "polls-plus", which is the version that we're using in 2020. And he's not mentioning the fact that Biden is in the midst of his post-convention period, while Clinton wasn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris Because as I've pointed out to George before, you can directly compare the *forecasted* margins of victory we show in each state to the win probabilities we showed and they show that the same margin translates to about the same win probabilities as in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated