Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 27 02:17:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris We've made changes to our polling average algorithm since 2016. Since he looked up what our win probability was in 2016, it would have been more honest of him to also look up and cite what the 2016 version of our polling average was that the win probability was derived from. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

RT @Nate_Cohn: There are some valid differences: --538 shifted from 'polls only' to 'polls plus' as default. polls plus in '16 was clinton… — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Retweet Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @gelliottmorris He's also citing the win probability from the "polls-only" version of our forecast from 2016, rather than "polls-plus", which is the version that we're using in 2020. And he's not mentioning the fact that Biden is in the midst of his post-convention period, while Clinton wasn't. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated