Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 27 01:14:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @StatModeling I will say this, though. If I'd developed a model that showed Biden at **99% to win the popular vote in July**, I wouldn't have published it. Not because I was afraid of how it looked, but because that's obviously a misspecified model that doesn't pass the smell test. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @StatModeling I also think it's completely irresponsible (and will lead to worse forecasts) *not* to think about the effect that COVID-19 will have. How you specify it is another question. But the job of a forecast is to reflect the real world, and COVID is huge part of the real world today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @StatModeling The reason I think those other numbers are wrong is because I've literally spent years digging into the weeds on the frankly fairly obscure set of problems you need to make election forecasts. Probably more time than anybody else. So my knowledge base is pretty strong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated