Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 27 01:11:06 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @StatModeling I also think it's completely irresponsible (and will lead to worse forecasts) *not* to think about the effect that COVID-19 will have. How you specify it is another question. But the job of a forecast is to reflect the real world, and COVID is huge part of the real world today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @StatModeling When have I ever denied my own agency? What you're accusing me of is making choices based on incentives other than having the most accurate (in the sense of well-calibrated) model, so please be honest about what your accusation was. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @StatModeling I will say this, though. If I'd developed a model that showed Biden at **99% to win the popular vote in July**, I wouldn't have published it. Not because I was afraid of how it looked, but because that's obviously a misspecified model that doesn't pass the smell test. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated