Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 27 01:25:35 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @StatModeling The reason I think those other numbers are wrong is because I've literally spent years digging into the weeds on the frankly fairly obscure set of problems you need to make election forecasts. Probably more time than anybody else. So my knowledge base is pretty strong. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @StatModeling I will say this, though. If I'd developed a model that showed Biden at **99% to win the popular vote in July**, I wouldn't have published it. Not because I was afraid of how it looked, but because that's obviously a misspecified model that doesn't pass the smell test. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @StatModeling I know the various ways that people can fuck up when building these forecasts, and I've fucked some of them up myself, so I can often look at a result and say "oops, there must be a bug there, or at least something that wasn't well considered", and more often than not, I'm right. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 27, 2020 Hibernated