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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 26 18:22:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know. A lot of incumbents around the world have been reasonably popular despite COVID-19 including in countries where it has been handled poorly. Boris Johnson's approval ratings are ~breakeven. Modi is very popular. Bolsonaro's #'s are middling but rebounding a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Jonathan Chait @jonathanchait

"If 42 percent of Americans approve of a Republican president under these conditions, it is at the very least not o… https://t.co/NgbI0UzGwF

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Still, it's not hard to envision the race tightening, and indeed the 538 model did expect the race to tighten somewhat, which is one reason why it has continued to give Trump much better odds than other models. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While Trump will *probably* lose and *possibly* lose badly—indeed, he's *currently* on track to suffer the worst incumbent loss since Carter—I don't think people's priors should be terribly strong about what effects a pandemic might have on an incumbent's popularity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated