Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 26 18:25:27 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While Trump will *probably* lose and *possibly* lose badly—indeed, he's *currently* on track to suffer the worst incumbent loss since Carter—I don't think people's priors should be terribly strong about what effects a pandemic might have on an incumbent's popularity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know. A lot of incumbents around the world have been reasonably popular despite COVID-19 including in countries where it has been handled poorly. Boris Johnson's approval ratings are ~breakeven. Modi is very popular. Bolsonaro's #'s are middling but rebounding a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

"If 42 percent of Americans approve of a Republican president under these conditions, it is at the very least not o… https://t.co/NgbI0UzGwF

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@IChotiner But he probably is suffering a penalty for his COVID handling. People's default around the world seems to be to become more pro-incumbent under COVID. I do wonder what would happen if there were all the same policy failures but he came across more emphatically. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 26, 2020 Hibernated Just a Typo