Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 21 22:47:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, the adjustment our model was making to these polls was overly harsh: about 5 points (so e.g. a Biden +7 poll from a D partisan group would be treated as Biden +2), when the adjustment should have been closer to 3 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As an aside, partisan polls of the presidential race have been more common this year. They make up about 20% of our state poll dataset, for instance. Previously, you saw plenty of partisan polls in Congressional races, but relatively few for POTUS. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's because the previous adjustment was based on our study of campaign *internal* polls released to the public (i.e. if the Biden or Trump campaigns released a poll). Those tend to be more biased than the broader universe of partisan-affiliated polls as we now define them. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated