Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 21 22:47:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As an aside, partisan polls of the presidential race have been more common this year. They make up about 20% of our state poll dataset, for instance. Previously, you saw plenty of partisan polls in Congressional races, but relatively few for POTUS. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But some ostensibly partisan polls play it straight down the fairway, while some ostensibly nonpartisan polls have pronounced biases. So the model will shift away from the prior as it collects more data. It mostly affects cases when we don't have much data from that pollster. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, the adjustment our model was making to these polls was overly harsh: about 5 points (so e.g. a Biden +7 poll from a D partisan group would be treated as Biden +2), when the adjustment should have been closer to 3 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated