Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 21 22:47:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That's because the previous adjustment was based on our study of campaign *internal* polls released to the public (i.e. if the Biden or Trump campaigns released a poll). Those tend to be more biased than the broader universe of partisan-affiliated polls as we now define them. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

However, the adjustment our model was making to these polls was overly harsh: about 5 points (so e.g. a Biden +7 poll from a D partisan group would be treated as Biden +2), when the adjustment should have been closer to 3 points. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

tl;dr: a good rule-of-thumb is that partisan polls are biased by 3-4 points in favor of the party the group supports (closer to 3 points for POTUS and 4 for Congress). Our presidential averages had been adjusting them by 5 points, though, so we've scaled that back slightly. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 21, 2020 Hibernated