Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 19 17:27:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JustinWolfers But people who sat down to in March formally predict what would happen, accounting for factors like policy failures and lack of compliance rather than wishing them away, mostly came up with predictions that are very close to where we are at today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure elite discourse around lockdowns in March was especially honest with itself about this, especially the likelihood of achieving technological improvements (such as fast-turnaround testing) on a short time frame in countries with poor governance (including the US). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The point about convenience is important, and why it's best to avoid conclusions such as "mail ballots are rejected at (slightly) higher rates than in-person ballots, and more Democrats (at least in 2020) vote by mail, therefore polls will overrate Democrats." — PolitiTweet.org

Chances of vote ultimately being counted are probably a little lower than voting in person - voters needs to follow… https://t.co/zXgBwjvJN4

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated