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Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 19 18:59:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The point about convenience is important, and why it's best to avoid conclusions such as "mail ballots are rejected at (slightly) higher rates than in-person ballots, and more Democrats (at least in 2020) vote by mail, therefore polls will overrate Democrats." — PolitiTweet.org

Kyle Kondik @kkondik

Chances of vote ultimately being counted are probably a little lower than voting in person - voters needs to follow… https://t.co/zXgBwjvJN4

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@JustinWolfers But people who sat down to in March formally predict what would happen, accounting for factors like policy failures and lack of compliance rather than wishing them away, mostly came up with predictions that are very close to where we are at today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are also a lot of things that can go wrong when you intend to vote in person. Long lines. Car trouble. Going to the wrong polling place. Getting stuck late at work. Getting sick. Bad weather. Not knowing what time polls close (surprisingly early in some states). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated