Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 19 17:07:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

* People hate when this is brought up, but part of the problem with suppression via lockdowns is that unless you either achieve eradication (~impossible) or use the time under lockdowns to improve technology (e.g. testing) cases start rising again once you relax the measures. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

** If it had been impossible to keep R from falling to <1, COVID would run its course until herd immunity. Indeed this is what some March predictions assumed. This would have been VERY bad. But it does mean it might have been "over" at some point, depending on length of immunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not sure elite discourse around lockdowns in March was especially honest with itself about this, especially the likelihood of achieving technological improvements (such as fast-turnaround testing) on a short time frame in countries with poor governance (including the US). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated