Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 19 16:53:09 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

** If it had been impossible to keep R from falling to <1, COVID would run its course until herd immunity. Indeed this is what some March predictions assumed. This would have been VERY bad. But it does mean it might have been "over" at some point, depending on length of immunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But also, we wound up in a middle ground where given the sort of interventions that society is willing to undertake, R seems to hover around 1. Achieving true suppression (R << 1) is too hard, apparently*. But it's not that hard to prevent R >> 1 with moderate interventions**. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

* People hate when this is brought up, but part of the problem with suppression via lockdowns is that unless you either achieve eradication (~impossible) or use the time under lockdowns to improve technology (e.g. testing) cases start rising again once you relax the measures. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated