Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 19 16:40:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But also, we wound up in a middle ground where given the sort of interventions that society is willing to undertake, R seems to hover around 1. Achieving true suppression (R << 1) is too hard, apparently*. But it's not that hard to prevent R >> 1 with moderate interventions**. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So if forecasts were pretty good in March, what changed? Part of it is was just this was very new in March. People weren't thinking so far ahead. Fall seemed a LONG time away. You could read these predictions, agree with them intellectually, but they didn't register emotionally. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

** If it had been impossible to keep R from falling to <1, COVID would run its course until herd immunity. Indeed this is what some March predictions assumed. This would have been VERY bad. But it does mean it might have been "over" at some point, depending on length of immunity. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 19, 2020 Hibernated