Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 17 22:47:14 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How so? Our forecast will hedge against movement in our polling average around the conventions by giving some weight to that pre-convention snapshot. So if, say, Biden gains 3% in our polling average, our forecast won't give him full credit for it until he maintains it for a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, unless there are more polls tonight, it looks like our final pre-convention snapshot of the race will be Biden +8.2. But note that there may be some divergence between our *forecast* and our *polling average* now that the conventions are starting. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In addition, our model applies a *convention bounce adjustment* since the party that just held its convention sometimes sees artificially high numbers. However, it's a very modest adjustment this year as compared to the effect it has had in the past. https://t.co/nVtlpQscbB https://t.co/aA3AJEybdS — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated