Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 17 22:50:08 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In addition, our model applies a *convention bounce adjustment* since the party that just held its convention sometimes sees artificially high numbers. However, it's a very modest adjustment this year as compared to the effect it has had in the past. https://t.co/nVtlpQscbB https://t.co/aA3AJEybdS — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How so? Our forecast will hedge against movement in our polling average around the conventions by giving some weight to that pre-convention snapshot. So if, say, Biden gains 3% in our polling average, our forecast won't give him full credit for it until he maintains it for a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Overall, this is a period where you don't necessarily learn a lot from the polls. Now and then, a convention will be a real inflection point in the race, but more commonly, whichever party gains ground tends to give much of it back. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated