Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 17 22:44:01 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, unless there are more polls tonight, it looks like our final pre-convention snapshot of the race will be Biden +8.2. But note that there may be some divergence between our *forecast* and our *polling average* now that the conventions are starting. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It seems like we need a few more gradations in talking about the USPS. A lot of the rhetoric on here falls into categories 1 or 5, while the reporting would point toward 2, 3 or 4. https://t.co/DKch1BYtMI — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

How so? Our forecast will hedge against movement in our polling average around the conventions by giving some weight to that pre-convention snapshot. So if, say, Biden gains 3% in our polling average, our forecast won't give him full credit for it until he maintains it for a bit. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated