Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 17 12:51:36 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, I intuitively expected Biden to have a higher probability than the ~70% he came out with. One reason to build models is it forces you to be more rigorous rather than to "trust your gut" (I don't think "guts" are very good at election forecasting given small samples, etc.) https://t.co/XgGeVqhIyq — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And... have some further reflections up on our forecast model and why I think other models are overconfident. This started out as a tweetstorm and we decided to turn it into an article instead, so it has a very "bloggy" feel! https://t.co/C1M0OsfzGz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Media coverage around herd immunity has gotten more nuanced. But one nuance that's a bit lacking in coverage IMO is an understanding that a COMBINATION of moderately high seroprevalence + moderate control measures may be enough to achieve containment when either alone might not. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated