Nate Silver @NateSilver538
FWIW, I intuitively expected Biden to have a higher probability than the ~70% he came out with. One reason to build models is it forces you to be more rigorous rather than to "trust your gut" (I don't think "guts" are very good at election forecasting given small samples, etc.) https://t.co/XgGeVqhIyq — PolitiTweet.org