Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 17 13:43:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Media coverage around herd immunity has gotten more nuanced. But one nuance that's a bit lacking in coverage IMO is an understanding that a COMBINATION of moderately high seroprevalence + moderate control measures may be enough to achieve containment when either alone might not. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, I intuitively expected Biden to have a higher probability than the ~70% he came out with. One reason to build models is it forces you to be more rigorous rather than to "trust your gut" (I don't think "guts" are very good at election forecasting given small samples, etc.) https://t.co/XgGeVqhIyq — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

NYC is not nearly as locked down as people assume (and the suburbs are even less so), but it's also a long way from normal and there's fairly high mask-wearing. So ~25% seroprevalence may be enough to keep R<=1 under those conditions but perhaps not under "business as usual". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated