Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked April 27, 2021

Created

Mon Aug 17 12:44:35 +0000 2020

Likes

269

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And... have some further reflections up on our forecast model and why I think other models are overconfident. This started out as a tweetstorm and we decided to turn it into an article instead, so it has a very "bloggy" feel! https://t.co/C1M0OsfzGz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you look closely, both Biden and Trump are gaining ground at the expense of undecided; 51.3% is Biden's highest number of the year, and 42.9% is Trump's high since the George Floyd protests, though he was as high as 45.6% pre-protests and pre-COVID. https://t.co/aWp4iSMyh9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW, I intuitively expected Biden to have a higher probability than the ~70% he came out with. One reason to build models is it forces you to be more rigorous rather than to "trust your gut" (I don't think "guts" are very good at election forecasting given small samples, etc.) https://t.co/XgGeVqhIyq — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated