Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 17 12:23:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you look closely, both Biden and Trump are gaining ground at the expense of undecided; 51.3% is Biden's highest number of the year, and 42.9% is Trump's high since the George Floyd protests, though he was as high as 45.6% pre-protests and pre-COVID. https://t.co/aWp4iSMyh9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Is the race tightening? I don't know. Biden peaked in our average at 9.6 points at various times in late June and early July. Our averages are pretty smart, but a 1.2-point shift is sort of on the fringe between what you'd consider real movement versus noise. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And... have some further reflections up on our forecast model and why I think other models are overconfident. This started out as a tweetstorm and we decided to turn it into an article instead, so it has a very "bloggy" feel! https://t.co/C1M0OsfzGz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 17, 2020 Hibernated