Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 14 22:25:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @SethS_D Or you can compare individual states. We had Clinton at +5.4 in PA in at this point in 2016 and 81% to win, whereas this year we have Biden +5.0 in PA and 75% to win. So it's pretty darn similar. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @SethS_D Right. As you can see in the follow-up tweet, her margins in the tipping points in polls-plus were pretty similar to where we have Biden projected this year, if not perhaps a half-point or a point better. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @SethS_D Both priors pointed toward a popular vote tossup at this point and both received similar (and low) weight. We do not necessarily agree that Biden's prior should be better given that Trump is an elected incumbent + economy is improving & forecasted to improve more. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated