Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 14 22:39:22 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @SethS_D Both priors pointed toward a popular vote tossup at this point and both received similar (and low) weight. We do not necessarily agree that Biden's prior should be better given that Trump is an elected incumbent + economy is improving & forecasted to improve more. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @SethS_D Or you can compare individual states. We had Clinton at +5.4 in PA in at this point in 2016 and 81% to win, whereas this year we have Biden +5.0 in PA and 75% to win. So it's pretty darn similar. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @DanRosenheck @SethS_D Especially if you're going to heavily weight the prior, we think it is a pretty big mistake not account for expected changes in the economy given what 3Q GDP growth is expected to be. https://t.co/4a38UV7IQJ — PolitiTweet.org

On August 14, the #GDPNow model nowcast of real GDP growth in Q32020 is 26.2%. https://t.co/T7FoDdgYos… https://t.co/7aOzi6Rrwi

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated