Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 14 21:39:43 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @SethS_D We have Biden at +5 in our current tipping point state, Pennsylvania. So, that's decently similar. Also, there are uncertainties created by COVID and it is correct for a model to account for them because that's part of the real world! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @SethS_D I don't know. But probably fairly similar. Our uncertainty index includes several factors that reduce uncertainty that we hand't considered in earlier years (i.e. this is the first time we're looking at polarization), as well as others that increase it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @SethS_D Also, I don't understand why there's any theoretical basis for ignoring COVID! Models should look at the real world and figure out how to reflect it! If there had been a COVID-15, we'd certainly have considered that in '16. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated