Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 14 21:21:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @SethS_D I don't know. But probably fairly similar. Our uncertainty index includes several factors that reduce uncertainty that we hand't considered in earlier years (i.e. this is the first time we're looking at polarization), as well as others that increase it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @SethS_D We didn't make a lot of changes. It's equivalent to like a new version of the EA Madden franchise. 90% the same product. The 2020 version would have produced a nearly identical forecast in 2016 as our 2016 model. It would have had Clinton at 70% on Election Day, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @SethS_D We have Biden at +5 in our current tipping point state, Pennsylvania. So, that's decently similar. Also, there are uncertainties created by COVID and it is correct for a model to account for them because that's part of the real world! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated