Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 14 20:51:59 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @SethS_D We didn't make a lot of changes. It's equivalent to like a new version of the EA Madden franchise. 90% the same product. The 2020 version would have produced a nearly identical forecast in 2016 as our 2016 model. It would have had Clinton at 70% on Election Day, for instance. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

While people need to be are of the fact that Trump still has decent winning chances (27% in our model), there's also about a 33% chance that he suffers the biggest popular vote loss for an incumbent since Hoover (exceeding Carter in 1980). The uncertainty runs in both directions. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck @gelliottmorris @SethS_D I don't know. But probably fairly similar. Our uncertainty index includes several factors that reduce uncertainty that we hand't considered in earlier years (i.e. this is the first time we're looking at polarization), as well as others that increase it. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated