Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

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Tue Aug 04 21:45:33 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonmladd @BrendanNyhan I'm saying that, in addition to doing a poor job of out-of-sample prediction, the fundamentals models also do a poor job of contributing to our understanding of what drives elections because the conclusions are based on heavily overfit data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan @jonmladd Since you think the Abramowitz model is strong, happy to agree to make it the standard by which we judge these and settle the debate. Here is its prediction for the the electoral vote this year: Biden 996, Trump -453 I'll take the under on Biden. https://t.co/Nb2HFqaLR3 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonmladd @BrendanNyhan Yes! I think that's absolutely an incorrect story and one not well supported by the evidence. The incumbent's fortunes were already poor, and then got worse because of COVID and maybe the protests. His approval for his handling of the economy is still pretty good! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated