Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Aug 04 22:34:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonmladd @BrendanNyhan Yes! I think that's absolutely an incorrect story and one not well supported by the evidence. The incumbent's fortunes were already poor, and then got worse because of COVID and maybe the protests. His approval for his handling of the economy is still pretty good! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonmladd @BrendanNyhan I'm saying that, in addition to doing a poor job of out-of-sample prediction, the fundamentals models also do a poor job of contributing to our understanding of what drives elections because the conclusions are based on heavily overfit data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonmladd @BrendanNyhan And if you plug in the before-and-after economic data into most of these models, they predict a much more radical change in Trump's standing (mostly sharply downward -- but in some cases sharply upward!) than actually occurred in the polls, where he only lost a couple of points. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated