Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Jul 30 19:14:23 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I'm not opposed to re-examining assumptions when faced with an obvious edge case. In the abstract, it would be better to have a model that anticipated edge cases in advance—but that's not always feasible. I am, however, opposed to overconfident models ESPECIALLY in an edge case. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If it's a very out-of-sample data point (which it is, although less so if you also use pre-WW2 data) then **nobody has any idea** how the economy impacts the election this year. So either your prior needs to be very weak, or maybe you just need to use a "polls-only" model. — PolitiTweet.org

Seems like we just had a linear model where a linear approximation worked. But now we have something very out of sa… https://t.co/3x2ZwJ9lzv

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonmladd I'm arguing that models like e.g. the Economist's that have Biden at 99% to win the popular vote based largely on an economic prior are likely misspecified. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated