Nate Silver @NateSilver538
If it's a very out-of-sample data point (which it is, although less so if you also use pre-WW2 data) then **nobody has any idea** how the economy impacts the election this year. So either your prior needs to be very weak, or maybe you just need to use a "polls-only" model. — PolitiTweet.org
Jonathan Ladd @jonmladd
Seems like we just had a linear model where a linear approximation worked. But now we have something very out of sa… https://t.co/3x2ZwJ9lzv
