Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Jul 30 18:34:41 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris It's not sniping. These are sharp, substantive critiques from someone who has spent more than 12 years now thinking deeply about this stuff. These models are in the public domain and my followers learn something when I make these critiques. So I'm not going to "take it offline". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris So that's your personal belief? That starts to get a lot different from 100:1. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If it's a very out-of-sample data point (which it is, although less so if you also use pre-WW2 data) then **nobody has any idea** how the economy impacts the election this year. So either your prior needs to be very weak, or maybe you just need to use a "polls-only" model. — PolitiTweet.org

Seems like we just had a linear model where a linear approximation worked. But now we have something very out of sa… https://t.co/3x2ZwJ9lzv

Posted July 30, 2020 Hibernated